​iAsk x China Daily | What Is Wrong with China’s Stock Market?

本文章刊登在CHINA DAILY-艾问专栏

乾隆五十七年,纽交所NYSE成立;袁世凯称中华帝国大皇帝的1915年,IBM首次在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易。

In the 57th year of Emperor Qianlong’s reign, NYSE was founded; In 1915, during the monarchical attempt of Yuan Shikai, IBM went public on the NYSE.

距今,美股市场已经发展超过200年,而中国股市才踉跄了不到30年。在A股不到30年的发展历程中,或许我们可以以10年为一个单位来进行回顾。

The US stock market has developed for over 200 years, while the Chinese stock market has only stumbled for less than 30 years. During the less than 30 years of development of China A-Shares, maybe we can review it by taking every decade as an unit.

从1990年到2001年的第一个十年里,上证指数从99.98点涨到了2233点,被视作股市发展的第一轮牛市。

During the first decade from 1999 to 2001, the Shanghai Composite increased from 99.98 points to 2233 points, which is regarded as the first round of a bull market.

在第二个十年,A股有着2007年的最高点6124点的辉煌,也经历了1664点的坎坷,到2011年底收于2228.52点,磕磕碰碰地奔跑了十年后,又从终点回到了起点。

During the second decade, China A-Shares had its peak at 6124 points in 2007, and its bottom at 1664 points. By the end of 2011, it concluded with 2228.52 points, returning to the start level after 10 years of rises and falls.

再下一个十年,除了15年上证指数冲到了5178点的高位,08、11、16年给股民留下的多是惨痛的记忆。

During the next decade, except for 2015, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to a historical high of 5178 points, the year 2008, 2011 and 2016 were tough for the investors.

2018年9月3日,上证指数报收2720.73点,与2008年9月3日的2276.67点相差无几。这十年,兜兜转转,又在股市大盘的走势图上画了一个令人心悸的圆。

On September 3rd, 2018, the Shanghai Composite Index concluded with 2720.73 points, which is approximately the same as September 3rd, 2008 with 2276.67 points. This decade, after several rounds of back and forth on the stocks trend graphics, it went back to the starting point.

中国股市的不振,置于全球资本市场也是一个异数。受次贷危机影响,美国股市从2007年10月到2008年11月,跌幅达到45%。

The sagging stockmarket of China is an anomaly among the global markets. Due to the subprime crisis, the US stockmarket went down by 45% from October 2007 to November 2008.

但之后,便一路持续往上爬升,十年后的8月23日,美股刷新了史上最长牛市纪录,3453天。

However right after, it started surging continuously. After 10 years, on August 23rd, 2018, the US bull market became the longest on record with 3453 days.

除美国外,欧洲的德国、法国、意大利等主要股票市场年增长至少在18%以上,即使因为脱欧问题而被调低了增长预期的英国,其股市的年增长也超过了8%。

股市

Aside from the US, major European stockmarkets such as Germany, France, and Italy all had annual growth rates of 18% or more. Even England with lowering growth forecasts due to Brexit, its stockmarket still grew over 8% annually.

在亚洲范围内,年增长仅为4.58%的上证指数也排名落后,不说比肩历时3587天大涨350%的印度股市,就连恒生指数、韩国指数和日本指数分别31%、21.5%和16%的上涨也望尘莫及。

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite has the lowest annual growth of 4.58%, and in comparison, the booming Indian stock market grew 350% in 3587 days. The Shanghai Composite also fell far behind the Hongkong HangSeng, Korea’s Kospi Index, and Japan’s Nikkei index which rose by 31%, 21.5%,and 16% respectively.

纵观美股历史,自1929年开始,共经历了25次熊市和25次牛市。美国熊市平均持续10个月,而牛市持续时间为32个月,呈现明显的牛长熊短特征。

Looking at the US stocks history, since 1929, there have been 25 bear markets and 25 bull markets. A US bear market lasts on average of 10 months, and a bull market 32 months, with clear patterns of a longer bull market period and a shorter bear market period.

熊市时,标普500的平均跌幅为35.4%,牛市时,平均涨幅达106.9%,呈涨多跌少特征。

During a bear market, the S&P 500 falls on average by 35.4%, and during a bull market, it raises on average by 106.9%, with more rises and fewer falls.

而A股市场的典型特征与美国市场恰恰相反,自1990年开市以来到2016年,A股一共经历了7次牛市和8次熊市。

However, the characteristics of China’s A-shares are the complete opposite. Since its start in 1990 until 2016, China’s A-shares experienced 7 bull markets and 8 bear markets.

A股熊市平均持续27.8个月,牛市平均持续12.1个月,熊市持续时间是牛市的2.3倍,呈典型的牛短熊长。

A Bear market lasts on average of 27.8 months, and a bull market 12.1 months on average. The length of a bear market is 3.2 times of the length of a bull market, with typical patterns of a shorter bull market period and a longer bear market period.

熊市时,上证综指平均跌幅为56.4%,牛市时平均涨幅为217.2%,跌幅和涨幅均显著超过美国,呈典型的暴涨暴跌。

During the bear market, the Shanghai Composite drops by 56.4% on average, and during the bull market, it raises by 217.2% on average. The level of rises and falls both significantly exceeds that of the US, a typical surge and crash phenomenon.

王铁飞

本期艾问顶级人物,艾问创始人艾诚对话高盛集团前合伙人王铁飞,探寻中美股市的过去十年。

In today’s iAsk Leaders, Gloria Ai is having a conversation with Ted (Tiefei) Wang, aformer Partner of Goldman Sachs, to discuss the China and US stock markets over the last decade.

分割线

艾诚:你曾经是高盛的合伙人,经历了08年的金融危机,从那之后的十年,我们看到美国的强势复苏,但是中国的股票市场却可以说是大起大落,你能解释其中的原因吗?

GLORIA AI: You used to be a partner of Goldman Sachs, and also experienced the 2008 financial crisis. From the 10 years since then, we saw US’s stronger recovery, however, China’s A-Stocks had scary ups and downs. Can you explain why?

王铁飞:美国实体经济复苏,从金融危机以后尽管缓慢但是往上的趋势非常明显。一方面,美联储有强有力的金融支撑;另一方面,尽管监管加强,但是美国经济的自身活力还是很强的,修复能力很强。美国的股市从09年到现在基本上涨幅已经超过三倍了,以标普500指数来说。

TED WANG: The US real economy has recovered since the financial crisis. Although the progress is slow, the upward trend is very obvious. On one hand, the Fed gave strong financial supports, and on the other hand, although regulations strengthened, the US economy itself is very vital, with strong ability to repair itself. Therefore, from 2009 to now, the US stockmarket has risen by about 3 times based on the S&P 500 index.

艾诚:但中国大起大落的背后是什么?

GLORIA AI: But what is behind the big ups and downs in China?

王铁飞:中国是个非常复杂的经济体。一方面我们有大量的财富的创造,资金从股市流向房地产;第二个原因,实体经济跟虚拟经济是联合在一起的,从十年这样一个角度来看,股市的回报,跟企业的利润是密切相关的。GDP、企业利润率、股市的增长,其实应该是同一个数量级。

TED WANG: China is a very complicated economy. On the one hand, we have a large amount of wealth creation, capital flows from the stockmarket to the real estate. Secondly, the real economy is connected with the virtual economy. From the perspective of 10 years, the returns on the stockmarket and the enterprises’ profits are closely related. GDP growth, the growth of enterprise profitability and the stock market growth should be on a similar level.

艾诚:股市是实体经济发展的晴雨表,但是在中国市场中为什么不是呢?

GLORIA AI: The stock market is the barometer of the real economy’s development, but why is it not the case in the Chinese market?

王铁飞:我们的经济里面发展有很多不平衡的东西。很多金融领域的资金,没有流向实体经济,而是流向房地产,这本身没错,但是在经济的高速发展当中,就有一些金融上面的东西需要理顺。

TED WANG: In our economic development, many things are unbalanced. Much capital in finance did not flow into the real economy, but to the real estate. This is not wrong per se. But during the fast development, some financial parts need to besorted out.

艾诚:风险,一直都是资本中永恒的话题。你在高盛工作期间,也曾经担任过风险管理委员会的会员,那么讲到风险,它和创新其实是有点矛盾的,因为有人说创新就是不断的试错。面对创新的风险,你觉得作为投资人该如何规避,作为创业者又如何控制?

GLORIA AI: Risk is an eternal topic in capital management. During your time at Goldman Sachs, you were also a member of the risk management committee. Talking about risks, it is a bit contradictory to innovation, as some people say innovation is a constant trial and error. Facing the risks of innovation, how do you avoid them as an investor and how to manage them as an entrepreneur?

王铁飞:所有投资人,没有一个是喜欢风险的。但你必须去面对风险,而且经常是有风险的地方就是有回报的地方。一方面你要理解风险是什么东西,第二要理解风险本身其实是一张门票。

TED WANG: No investor likes risks. But in the end, you have to face risks. And often, where there are risks, there are returns. So on the one hand, you need to understand what risk is, and secondly, to understand that risk itself is an entrance ticket.

从我的角度来看,创业的时候,有资金的、流动性的风险,有黑天鹅的风险,有信用风险、关联风险…我把这种作为金融风险,但风险还有别的风险。

From my point of view, when founding a startup, there is the risk of asset liquidity, the risk of black swans, credit risks and associated risks etc. I call them financial risks, but there are other kinds of risks.

艾诚:那作为一个投资人,面对风险,最健康的心态是什么?

GLORIA AI: Then as an investor, what is the most healthy way to face risks?

王铁飞:很多人说“我喜欢风险”,这个我觉得是变态,没人喜欢风险。但你必须接受风险,用常态心理来面对风险,然后需要有前瞻性,所以你要认识到我有什么风险,有些风险是看得到的,有些风险是看不到。

TED WANG: Many people say “I am risk-seeking”. I think this is abnormal. No one likes risks. But you need to accept risks, and face them with a good attitude and be forward-thinking. So you need to understand what kinds of risks are there. Some risks are foreseeable, some are not.

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