iAsk x China Daily | How can PE Business Continue in Bear Market?

本文章刊登在CHINA DAILY-艾问专栏

中国日报

麻省理工学院物理学博士毕业,曾经供职于摩根大通、高盛、美银美林等国外知名投行,2012年起就担任英国华人金融家协会会长……头顶无数光环的金融家王昌南,如今却回到了国内,回到了杭州。

Holding a PhD in Physics from the School of Engineering at MIT, having worked for renowned foreign investment banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and serving as Director of Chinese Association of Financial Executives since 2012…Despite such fame and honor, financial expert Wang Changnan has returned to Hangzhou, China.

吸引他回来的,是中国本土爆发式增长的私募基金市场。

It is the explosive growth of China’s PE fund market that lures him back.

截至2018年3月底,私募基金管理机构达2.3万家,管理基金规模达12.04万亿元,但内幕交易和市场操纵饱受诟病,资本市场的大盘上,站满了希望跟着风口发财的“韭菜”,买股票,买了套,套了割,割了买,反反复复,如韭菜般生生不息,割完一茬又一茬。

By the end of March 2018, there were 23,000 PE institutions managing 12,04trillion yuan of funds. However, insider trading and market manipulation were much criticized. Financial market is full of investors looking for windfall. They are constantly buying and selling stocks, like garlic chives growing one after another.

王昌南

“人傻钱多”的地方就不会缺少套利者,狂热的投机者不停地冲撞监管的围栏,试图越出边界,但当他想割韭菜的时候,不知道自己也会被别人收割。王昌南亲历国内外金融行业近20年的发展,对二级市场有着最深刻的理解,他既见过全球金融大鳄的创富神话,也见过投资者血本无归的悲惨绝望。

A place full of capital and crazy people can never have enough arbitrageurs. Fanatic speculators keep crashing against the fence of regulation to get out of the border. But when they try to profit from other investors, they don’t expect that one day they may become victims. Having been engaged nearly two decades in the financial industry both home and abroad, Wang has the deepest understanding of the secondary market. He has seen the fortune sagas of global financial tycoons, as well as the misery and despair of investors who lost everything.

本期艾问顶级人物王昌南,揭秘私募基金背后的内幕,拨开重重迷雾,探寻未来的方向。

Today we have Wang as guest of iAsk Leaders to unveil what’s behind PE funds, to go through the mist and explore the path for the future.

内幕交易和市场操纵之下,谁来保护散户?

Who can protect retail investors?

艾诚:私募基金在中国的发展风雨兼程地走过了13年,内幕交易和二级市场的操纵与炒作也备受诟病,您认为如果中国私募基金未来大步迈向产业繁荣的话,最大的风险在哪?

iAsk: PE funds have experienced ups and downs in the last 13 years. Insider trading as well asmanipulation and hype in the secondary market are much criticized. If China’s PE funds is to prosper in the future, what are the biggest risks?

王昌南:最大的风险我觉得还是风险控制和合规方面,信息是不是如实披露,主要是私募公司信息披露、募资时宣传材料的真实性,还有客户收益和风险评估,这对于私募公司来说是一个比较大的风险口。内幕交易是存在的,股票炒作也是存在的,在国外内幕交易是非常严肃的问题,如果是内幕交易,肯定要判刑的,然后要罚款,至少几年之内在证券行业你是不能干的。在国外,尤其是美国,你要做内幕交易很少能躲过监管的眼睛,因为他们基本上都能查得到。那么相对来说在中国,内幕交易可能监管没有那么严格。

Wang: I think the biggest risks are risk control and compliance, truthful information disclosure, the authenticity of the PE companies’ publicity materials during fund raising, as well as client returns and risk assessment. These will be the major risks for PE companies. Insider trading is real, so is stock market hype. Insider trading is a very serious issue abroad. It surely results in sentencing and fines, at least you can’t work in securities for a few years. Especially in the US, insider trading hardly escapes the regulators, because they are able to find out. In China, however, regulation on insider trading may be less stringent.

艾诚:监管没有那么严格是技术问题还是制度问题?

iAsk: Is loose regulation atechnical or institutional problem?

王昌南:应该是结合的,大家相互信息交流可能没有那么严密,比如并购在国外相互之间是完全不能交流的,但在中国可能就没有这种特别的意识。以后随着金融市场的发展和国际的接轨,这些可能会改变。

Wang: It should be both. Information exchange may not be well-limited. Mergers and acquisitions abroad forbid any exchange of information, but in China people are not aware of that. As China’s financial market grows and integrates in the international market, this might change.

市场炒作在国内还是见得比较广,比如我经常一个星期可以接到一两个电话,要把你拉到一个微信群里,然后微信群里的目的就是要给你推荐股票。一般来说,微信群里面有几个人可能就是在这之前的一天,先把这个股票仓位建好,三点以后,再披露出来说这个股票明天肯定会涨。然后第二天很有可能会增长,为什么?因为有很多人会去追这个股票,有可能这些人在第二天就抛掉了。中国是T+1的,就是说第二天进去追这个股票的人是跑不掉,而前一天买进这些股票的人,第二天正好是可以走的。都知道这些是违法的,但是有很多人做。

Market hype is commonplace in China. For instance, I get one or two calls a week trying to add me to a WeChat group whose purpose is just to recommend stocks. Usually the main players in this group are likely to buy instocks in advance and disclose the information after 3pm, saying the stockprice is bound to rise tomorrow. Probably it does rise tomorrow, because many people would buy the stock, and some of them might sell them next day. Sinceit’s T+1 in China, second day buyers cannot sell it on the same day, while first day buyers can sell on the second day. It’s illegal, but many people are doing this.

艾诚:所以你想对这些贪图便宜的接盘侠和韭菜们说点什么?

iAsk: What advice do you have for the greedy and suffering investors?

王昌南:就是不要受骗上当;这些操作的人也注意一下,一个道德底线,一个法律底线;然后希望中国的监管部门能够对这帮人严惩。

Wang: Don’t be fooled. The operators must also keep in mind the bottom line both morally and legally. I hope Chinese regulators can give heavy punishment to those people.

艾诚:有这样非法和不合理的事情,内幕交易和操纵市场盛嚣尘上,我想也应该是犯罪的成本比较低,惩罚的力度不够,所以当制度和人性进行较量的时候,人性是最经不起考验的。

iAsk: Such illegal and unreasonable events like insider trading and market manipulation are gaining momentum. It is partly due to low cost of crime and light punishment. When institutions compete with human nature, the latter may easily fail.

王昌南:所以,如果有比较严重的惩罚的话,也许这个会改变。

Wang: Therefore, if there is heavy punishment, the situation may change.

不养韭菜没人接盘,生意怎么继续?

How can PE business continue?

艾诚:目前私募产业不是很规范的情况下,最可怜的就是百姓,大众的接盘侠。在监管上不能完善之前,让机构去承担风险就成了暂时的解决方案,那机构是成为大韭菜,还是能够成为救世主?

iAsk: As the PE industry is poorly regulated, the ordinary stock buyers suffer the most. Before regulation improvement, a temporary solution is to let institutions bear the risks. Will the in stitutions be eliminated from the market or become saviors?

王昌南:这个就是看各个公司了,就像我说的,最后有可能小的、不能生存的就会被淘汰,偏向于大的规模化。

Wang: It depends on the companies. Probably in the end, small institutions unable to survive will be eliminated, while big ones tend to form large scale.

艾诚:整个比特币世界用最快的速度把中国二级市场中所有欺骗、操纵和谎言做了一遍迅速的演绎,也迅速教育了一批韭菜。长期来讲,不养韭菜没人接盘,这个生意怎么继续?

iAsk: The Bitcoin world has done all the frauds, manipulations and lies found in China’s secondary market at the fastest pace. In the long term, how can PE business continue without stock market reshuffle or people buying stocks in bear market?

王昌南:就像国外一样,让专业人员做专业的事。

Wang: Just like other countries, let the professionals do the professional things.

艾诚:所谓的专业人员、专业机构,在投资股票或者二级市场的时候,和散户、被欺骗的韭菜最大的区别在哪?

iAsk: In stock investment and secondary market, what’s the difference between professional staff/institutionsand defrauded and suffering retail investors?

王昌南:最大的区别就是专业人员是比较理性的,注重价值的发现,散户有可能就是跟踪,如果哪个东西被炒上去,他也许就跟进去了。

Wang: The biggest difference is that professionals are relatively rational. They focus on finding value, while retail investors simply follow. When some stock price is hyped up, they may follow.

艾诚:现在的大潮是金融市场越来越专业化和国际化,对于大部分中国投资人来讲,它是一种揠苗助长的冲击和教育。那您觉得这是健康的吗?这个速度是最理性和合理的节奏吗?

iAsk: The financial market is more professional and international, which is a disruptive shock and lesson formost Chinese investors. Do you think it’s sound? Is it the most rational and reasonable pace?

王昌南:我觉得是的,随着金融市场的发展,更多专业人员参与了市场的运作,有一些对金融市场和金融工具、金融产品不是很了解的人就有可能会失败,甚至被淘汰。但是在金融市场的发展过程当中,很多投资者生存下来,可能就会有一个飞快的发展,所以我觉得这应该是正面的。

Wang: I think so. As the financial market develops, more professionals are engaged in market operation. Those who know little about the financial market, instruments and products may fail or even be eliminated. But as market develops, many investors who survive may have the chance to grow rapidly. Therefore, I think it’s positive.

艾诚:未来的中国最需要什么样的专业投资机构?

iAsk: What kind of professional investment institutions will be most needed in China?

王昌南:基金公司要有一些比较有丰富经验的金融人士,也就是人才,对金融市场和金融工具各方面都有深刻了解的,有一个风控和合规的团队,做事比较规范。

Wang: Fund companies need experienced financial talents who are well-versed in financial market and instruments. Besides, they need a team of risk control and compliance, who perform their duties by the rules.