本文章刊登在CHINA DAILY-艾问专栏
42天内平均每天爆雷2.6家，这是近两个月以来的P2P平台现状，拖延兑付、跑路、资金池、期限错配等负面消息不断被曝出，幻灭与恐慌蔓延，雷潮还在继续。
Over the past 42 days, 2.6 P2P companies have touched the mines (collapsed) every day on average. Such scandals as delay in payment, run off, capital pool and term mismatch keep cropping up, spreading fear and panic among investors.
P2P领域的一场“大崩盘”已经开始，全行业风声鹤唳，草木皆兵，如果在此之前，对P2P行业的质疑还只是细雨绵绵，那7月以来，控诉声已演变成狂风骤雨，不知何时停歇。
“The Great Collapse” in the P2P industry is looming and people see any sign of disturbance as danger. Before July the doubt on P2P industry was like a drizzling, but soon it became an endless and hopeless hurricane.
这场网贷行业的暴风雨，道口贷CEO罗川身处其中，“P2P是诈骗”这句话让从业者百口莫辩，罗川期待改变现状，实际上真正的P2P是一种很有意义的金融创新。
Among this hurricane stands Luo Chuan, CEO of Daokoudai. “P2P is a lie” often outvoices the practitioners’ opinions in the dispute. Luo is desperate for a change in the status quo because he believes P2P in the real term is a meaningful innovation in the financial industry.
但泥沙俱下的大河中，鱼龙混杂，少数骗子和不合规的玩家消耗了大众对互金行业的信任，真正的P2P模式值得被信任吗？艾问创始人艾诚在这场P2P大雨中，探访道口贷这样一家成立不到4年，专注供应链金融的P2P网贷平台，和这家公司的创始人一起，带你一起预见P2P所能展现的无限未来。
But in the industry mingled with good and bad, a minority of liars have consumed people’s trust on the internet finance. Could the true P2P model be trusted? Gloria Ai, founder of iAsk Media, delves into the four-year-old Daokoudai, a P2P platform dedicated to supply chain finance. Together with the founder of this company, let’s try to envisage the bright future of P2P model.
42天爆雷108家，P2P是诈骗？
Is P2P a Lie?
6月1日至7月12日的42天内，全国共有108家P2P平台爆雷，其中不乏累计交易额达百亿级的P2P平台停业，包括钱爸爸、牛板金、银票网、投融家等，仅7月9日一天，爆雷的P2P平台就有16家，成百上千万的投资人或将难逃血本无归的厄运。
In 42 days from June 1st to July 12th, 108 P2P companies across China touched the mines. Among them are big players with billions of trading volume such as QianBaBa, Niubangold, Yingpiao.com and Tourongjia. 16 P2P companies touched the mines on a single day of July 9th, evaporating the money of tens and thousands of investors.
“P2P”成为互联网金融的敏感词，不再与创新、便捷、科技联系在一起，而成为了“骗子”的代名词。P2P模式的初衷其实是希望解决传统金融体系中的信息不对称，但“监管真空”下，部分P2P平台不仅没有解决信息不透明和不对称的问题，反而成为财富收割机。
Instead of being mentioned together with innovation, convenience and technology, P2P has become the sensitive byword of lie. The original intention of P2P model was to solve the information asymmetry in the traditional financial system. But the truth turned out to be that some P2P platforms, due to the lack of supervision, not only failed to solve information asymmetry, but became a wealth cutter.
央行党委书记、银保监会主席郭树清曾明确表示，“收益率超过6%就要打问号，超过8%就很危险，10%以上就要做好损失全部本金的准备。”而P2P收益率曾经高达20%，即使在稳步下降后，也普遍在10%左右。
Guo Shuqing, secretary of the CPC committee of the People’s Bank of China, president of China Banking Regulatory Committee(CBRC) said, “if the yield rate is over 6%, it is questionable; over 8% is dangerous; and if it is over 10%, then get prepared for losing the principal.” But the yield rates of some P2P platforms once had reached up to 20% and most of them remained at about 10% even after the stable decline.
低风险高收益的投资，从来都不存在，你盯上别人的利，别人可能会要了你的本，10%的收益或许会换来100%的损失。
A high-yield investment with low risk never exists and 10% of yield will cost you 100% principal.
艾诚：讲到小额贷款、放贷、还款这些词，还有互联网金融，为什么会这么敏感？为什么都需要用科技金融这样的概念？大家都说，我是科技金融，解决中小企业的融资问题。
Gloria Ai: Why it is sensitive to mention such words as petty loan, lending, repayment and the Internet finance? Why do we use the concept of TechFin? Because as a TechFin，we solve the financing problem of small and medium companies.
罗川：对，这里面的本质就在于，你如果只是个贷款平台，你很可能完全不了解这个钱用来干什么。科技金融的目的是，希望通过这样一个信息服务，我们能够真正地让金融资金的流动更清晰，减少信息不对称最重要的一个手段，就是你能够知道资金的流动方向。
Luo Chuan: And the nature of it is that, if it’s simply a loan platform, you won’t know where the money is heading. And the aim of TechFin is that, we hope by offering such information services to fully enable a much clearer flow of the financial capital. To reduce the information asymmetry, the most important means is to know where the capital flows towards.
艾诚：金融行业常常会利用信息不对称去做金融的生意，那你是要做什么呢？
Gloria Ai: But the financial industry often takes advantage of such asymmetry. So what’s your plan?
罗川：科技改变的实际上是这样一件事情，或者说它力图改变的是这样一个事情：从信息的发起源头到信息的接受者之间，让速度变得更快，让真实性变得更准确，至少科技力图这样做。
Luo Chuan: This is what this technology changes or tries to change. It speeds up the flow of information, from the sender to the receiver and makes it more accurate. This is what it tries to achieve.
初心是宝贵的，但初心常常被逐利的欲望淹没。《2018年P2P网贷行业半年报告》显示，2018年6月，P2P网贷行业的平均投资利率为9.83%，收益率最高可以达到18.00%，最低也到达6.18%。
But the goodwill, while precious, is often swamped by the greed. The 2018 P2P Half-Year Report indicated that the average return on investment(ROI) of P2P in June is 9.83% with the highest yield of 18.00% and the lowest yield of 6.18%.
互联网金融的本质是金融，金融的核心是风险识别和风险定价，但跑马圈地的冲动中和社会资本的追捧下，风控常常变成了一句挂在嘴边的空话。如果平台不做风控，投资者又缺乏承担风险的能力，最后当资金链断裂，无法收场时，平台非法跑路，投资者只能咽下苦果。
The nature of internet finance is finance and the core of finance lies in risk identification and pricing. But due to the business competition and the irrational social capital, risk control becomes a useless scrap of paper. If the P2P platform turns a blind eye to the risk control and the investors can’t assume the risks, when the capital chain breaks, the platform can run off but the investor can’t.
“骗子蒙傻子”，P2P的本质是什么？
What is the Nature of P2P?
谋利者相信，科技可以赚钱；创新者相信，科技可以改变世界。
Speculators believe science and technology can make money; innovators believe science and technology can change the world.
“我相信科技尤其是信息技术在改变很多东西，其中自然包括金融领域。”这是罗川的创业初心，他告诉艾问，道口贷首先一定是一家科技金融企业，而非小贷公司。
“I believe science and technology, especially the information technology, is changing a lot of things, including the financial sector.” This is the original intention for Luo starting the company. He tells iAsk that Daokoudai is a financial technology company rather than a petty loan firm.
传统金融服务存在门槛过高、中小企业融资难、信用风险逆向选择等等各种问题，P2P模式类似于金融界的Uber，提供投资者和融资者之间的平台服务，以最合适的价格，将投资者的资金配置给最有需要、也最合适的融资人。
The traditional financial sector has such problems as high threshold, difficulty for small and medium companies to get financing, and credit risk adverse choice. While the P2P model, like Uber in the financial sector, can allocate the money from the investor to the most suitable financier at the most appropriate price via the platform it provides.
但悲剧在于，当伪P2P沦为敛财手段、传销式的骗局，真正的P2P模式不再被信任，人们倾向于因为少数否定多数。
But the tragedy is that when the P2P is reduced to a way of raking in money and pyramid sales, the true P2P model will no longer be trusted since people believe that a fly in the ointment will destroy all.
艾诚：你是一家互联网金融公司的创始人，我见到你的时候是非常诧异的，你超越了我见到的大部分互联网、互金公司创始人的平均年龄，你为什么还要创业，而且还要做互金，还要做这么复杂，充满骗子、傻子的风口浪尖的生意？
Gloria Ai: I am quite surprised at seeing you being the founder of a TechFin company, because you are older than most of the founders of TechFin companies I have ever seen. So why do you want to start a new business? Why do you want to make it so complicated in the TechFin sector, full of liars, fools and risks?
罗川：首先，创业，你只要进去了之后，就是件一辈子的事情，它是停不下来的。人生也好，经济发展也好，企业家也好，都是在不断地循环，不断地试图突破自己，然后达到一个更高的水准，人类社会也是这么进步的，每个人也是这么进步的。所以你去看这些真正的企业家，我觉得没有一个人是懒的。
Luo Chuan: First, I think that once you become an entrepreneur, you can’t stop starting new businesses, because it is the stamp of your life. And I think people’s life, the economy and entrepreneurs, they are all in a cycle. They are trying to make breakthroughs so as to reach a higher level. This is how the human society makes progress and the same rule also applies to the individuals. So real entrepreneurs are all hardworking.
第二，最大的动机可能就是，我相信科学技术在改变很多东西，尤其是信息技术在改变很多领域。传统来讲，金融领域就是一个做信息的行业。
Second, the biggest motive for me is that, I believe science and technology is changing a lot of things, especially information technology, It is changing a lot of areas. So traditionally, this financial sector is all about information.
你如果仔细地分析所有的金融风险，会发现最重要的就是来自于信息的不对称，我希望我做的事情能够给这个企业也好，给身边的朋友也好，都带来实实在在的价值，然后能够真正地帮助到他们的生产，这一点很不一样。
If you analyze carefully, you will find that all the financial risks come from information asymmetry. So I hope what I do can bring value to this company and friends of mine and truly help their business. This is what makes my effort special.
艾诚：如果道口贷是一个科技金融公司，它提供的最本质的服务是什么？
Gloria Ai: If Daokoudai is a TechFin company，what is the most basic service it provides?
罗川：它提供的最本质的服务，是让那些中小企业能够利用新兴的互联网技术，实现更有效的融资。因为不仅在中国，在全世界市场上，中小企业的融资都是一个困难的事情。
Luo Chuan: The most basic service is to let those small and medium companies make use of the emerging Internet technology so as to get financing effectively. It is because not only in China, but in the whole world it is hard for those companies to get financing.
2015年11月，在上线11个月后，道口贷实现了第一个10亿元交易额，罗川发布题为《进窄门，走长路》的内部信，这六个字，几乎可以被视作道口贷的精神内核。
11 months since the founding of the company, Daokoudai reached its first 1 billion yuan of trading volume in November 2015. Luo issued the internal letter named Enter the Narrow Door and the Way is Long and these words could nearly become the core of Daokoudai.
《圣经·马太福音》中有一句话：因为引到灭亡，那门是宽的，路是大的，进去的人也多；引到永生，那门是窄的，路是小的，找着的人也少。
Matthew Gospel 7:13-14 said, “for wide is the door and open is the way which goes to destruction, and great numbers go in by it. For narrow is the door and hard the road to life, and only a small number make discovery of it.”
正如当前P2P平台的乱象，投机者利用P2P的幌子圈钱诈骗，那门是宽的，但总会因为踩到雷被炸；真正沉下心做P2P的人，进窄门，看起来并没有高到惊人的收益，但前路是长远的。
The sentence can be applied to the chaos of P2P platforms. The speculators defraud money in the name of P2P since the door is wide, but they will touch the mines sooner or later; But for those who truly do P2P, the return is not surprising since the door is narrow but the road to life is long.
骗子进宽门、走大路，罗川执意进窄门、走长路。
The liar takes the wide door and the open way while Luo takes the narrow door and the long way.
P2P大洗牌，谁能活下来？
Who Can Survive form the Reshuffle of P2P?
信用宽松和监管宽松造就了P2P狂欢的盛宴，在几乎“监管真空”的环境下，网贷行业一路狂飙，纵然负面消息不断，也没有因此而停滞。
Loose credit need and supervision regulation have spawned the P2P spree and it enjoyed rapid development despite the incessant scandals.
根据网贷之家统计，网贷平台成交量从2012年的212亿，蹿升到了2017年的2.8万亿，贷款余额从58亿上升到1.2万亿，分别增长了132倍和206倍。
According to wdzj.com, the trading volume of those P2P platforms has increased from 21.2 billion yuan in 2012 to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2017, while the loan balance has increased from 5.8 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan in the meantime, increasing 132 times and 206 times respectively.
在浑水之中，P2P平台自身的业务瑕疵和违规行为被忽略，混乱市场中劣币驱逐良币。
In this spree, the flaw and foul play of P2P platforms were ignored and bad money drove out good money.
但今年以来，变天了，起风下雨，监管收紧，P2P不再是“钱多、人傻、好骗”的平台，野蛮生长时跨过边界的触角被斩断，监管压力的增大让本就脆弱的P2P平台迅速爆雷。
But the climate changed this year. P2P platforms are no longer the byword of “the liar fools the rich fool” and the tougher regulatory has not only cut down many irregularities but also let many fragile P2P platforms touch the mines.
互金行业本身是一个资金流的生意，借新还旧在所难免，如今市场恐慌情绪中，即便合规经营的平台，投资端资金的流出，还是会让承受力差的平台面临资金断流的风险。
The Internet finance itself is all about capital flow, thus bringing refinancing unavoidable. In this panic market, the outflow of investors’ money on those lawful platforms will nevertheless risk cutting the money flow on those fragile ones.
眼见P2P平台起高楼，也眼见高楼倒塌，废墟一片，P2P进入一个信心重建和规范化发展的新时期。虽然会经历阵痛，但也是行业成长的代价。
Seeing the ups and downs of P2P platforms, this industry has entered a new period of confidence rebuilding and regulated development. It is also the pain along the road of growing up.
艾诚：这个行业现在最大的波动是不是就在政策上？
Gloria Ai: So the biggest uncertainty of this sector comes from the policy？
罗川：对，现在的话，最大的不确定性是在政策监管这个不确定性上，不管是中国还是美国，监管的政策都是对这样一个市场影响最大的。在美国发展最大的Lending club，他们其实也是在符合了监管之后才发展得很快，整个借贷的余额才能够上升得很快。监管清晰了之后，它会明确哪些是合法的，哪些是不合法的，那么不合法的就要慢慢退出，合法的可以得到支持，可以继续去做。
LuoChuan: Yes, for now, the most uncertain factor comes from regulations. Be it in China or America, regulations always have the largest impact on the market. Lending club, the biggest player in America, has enjoyed the most rapid development only after it has conformed with regulations. Their debit and credit balance is skyrocketing. Once uncertainty is taken out of the picture, what is legal and what is illegal become very clear. Then the unlawful companies will gradually die out while the lawful ones will get the support to move on.
艾诚：如果让你给未来下赌，你会把最大的赌放在哪？
Gloria Ai: Where will you bet for the future？
罗川：就是踏踏实实支持实体经济，支持传统的金融体系里没有覆盖到的人群，但是要用一个正直的心去服务。
Luo Chuan: I will support the real economy and support the people uncovered by this traditional financial sector. But we need an upright mind to do this job.
道口贷成立在中国P2P风起云涌之时，四年时间，几经浮沉，经历过P2P的爆红，也经历过低潮，关于未来，罗川并不需要再去追逐哪一个风口，因为道口贷一直处在风口上。
Established in the tide of P2P in China, Daokoudai has experienced ups and downs over the past 4 years. There is no need for Luo to catch any wave since Daokoudai will always stay on the wave of the market.
中国庞大的小微企业和个人合理融资需求仍然存在，P2P平台不会因为爆雷潮而被抹杀，这次大洗牌，或许是行业的优胜劣汰，雷潮过后能够存活下来的，才是更纯粹的P2P平台。
The financing need from millions of small and micro business and the individual still remains. P2P platforms won’t be obliterated due to this reshuffle. Those which can stay after the hurricane are the survival of the fittest.
风来了，不被风刮跑，存活下去，就是赢家。
The hurricane is coming; survivors are winners.
